Final Four Breakdown, Pt. 2

A couple of days ago, I broke down the final game of the left half of the bracket between Michigan State and UConn. Today I will do the same for the right half of the bracket between Villanova and UNC. Who will survive and advance to the final game and get their at One Shining Moment? We'll have to wait until Saturday to know for sure, but, hopefully, after my analysis you'll have a pretty fair idea of what could happen come this weekend.
So, without further ado, here's my breakdown of the East champion (Villanova) vs. the South champion (North Carolina).

East Champion: Villanova Wildcats

How they got there: At times during the regular season, like when they beat Pittsburgh 67-57, the Wildcats looked like the best team in the Big East. And then there were the times when you wondered if they belonged, such as after a head-scratching home loss to an already-imploded Georgetown team. It's hard to doubt 'Nova now after the performance they've put on in the NCAA tournament. After struggling early in their opening round game against a veteran American squad, Villanova pulled away, won by thirteen, and didn't look back for the next two rounds as they smashed college basketball juggernauts UCLA and Duke, respectively. Just as it all looked like the dream was coming to an end for the Wildcats, they pulled out a gritty, hard-fought, two point win over fellow Big East member Pittsburgh in a wacky finish to a much-more-exciting-than-predicted Elite Eight matchup.

Strengths: Whenever you talk about Philadelphia, you have to think toughness, tenacity, and grit. These Wildcats possess all of these qualities, and talent to boot. They throw a seemingly limitless amount of guards at you, all of whom can make plays in different facets of the game. The leader, though, is junior point guard Scotty Reynolds. Reynolds is an experienced guy who can get into the lane and also make it rain from deep. He's not the quickest guy, especially when you talk about recent stars that 'Nova has had like Randy Foye, Allan Ray, and Kyle Lowry, but he definitely gets the job done. Guards like Corey Stokes, Corey Fisher, and Reynolds give Villanova a deadly outside shooting arsenal. Senior leader Dante Cunningham is another key player for the 'Cats. He's their leading scorer and the only semblance of a low post threat that they have. Jay Wright has shown himself over the last few years to be one of the true, young stars in the coaching profession and a real wizard when it comes to getting the most out of his players.

Weaknesses: Villanova's glaring weakness is their utter scarcity of interior depth. Cunningham is the only player who starts that could even be classified as a "big man," and he's only 6' 7". 'Nova had no problem handling their first three opponents, all of whom lacked any real bangers inside. Pitt was supposed to expose this weakness, but shockingly the Panthers bailed out the Wildcats and forgot about their hoss Dejaun Blair down the stretch of the game. Another problem for the 'Cats is a tendency to get out of control on offense and start jacking up shots without getting into the flow of the game. This can work to their benefit or detriment, depending on how much the team is "feeling it." Even a short dry spell could signal doom for Villanova, though, as it almost did against Pittsburgh.

South Champion: North Carolina Tar Heels

How they got there: UNC has been "the team" all year long. The team that everybody thought was the best in the nation by far--some people even thought they might go undefeated (nearly an impossible accomplishment in college basketball). After an undefeated non-conference season, they slowed down substantially in the conference section of their schedule, losing three games in the regular season and a shocking upset to Florida State in the ACC tournament. And then came the NCAA tournament...and all possible doubts about the 'Heels were quickly laid to rest. After ascertaining the number one seed in the South bracket, North Carolina proceeded to dismantle all comers like they were playing against high school freshmen. Nobody so far in the tournament, even mighty Oklahoma, has been able to come closer than twelve points to the Tar Heels.

Strengths: North Carolina has few weaknesses and likely starts the strongest starting five in the country. Ty Lawson is one of the premier floor generals in the college game right now--nobody manages the tempo and flow of a game better. With both his ability to break down the defense and control the pace of the game, he's by far the most important player on the team. Wayne Ellington is an outside sniper who can heat up at any time and take over a game with his refined scoring ability, and Danny Green is another perimeter player who is able to really stuff the statsheet and stretch the defense if he's shooting the rock well (which he hasn't, of late). Of course, you can't mention UNC without talking about Tyler Hansbrough. He's one of the most overrated players of all time, and often hurts his team with poor shot selection, but nobody gets to the line as readily as he does and he's a true warrior inside--you can't teach heart. The last starter, Deon Thompson, is a skilled post who doesn't get enough credit for his consistent play inside due to the established stars around him. Carolina plays the best up-and-down transition game in the country year in and year out, and this year's no exception.

Weaknesses: There surely aren't very many, but the much talked about one is the frequent defensive lapses that UNC undergoes, especially in regards to defending high-caliber guards. They've been torched by Jeff Teague, Tyrese Rice, Greivis Vasquez, and Toney Douglas for 34, 25, 35, and 27 respectively--Carolina's only losses, by the way. The 'Heels play tight man-to-man defense the entire game, but sometimes it seems like they lose interest in the game on the defensive end. The only other potential killer for UNC is their dearth of depth. Few teams have been hit with the injury bug more than Carolina. With Will Graves and Marcus Ginyard both lost for the season, UNC's backcourt is heavily depleted, forcing them to rely on minimally talented Bobby Frasor and freshman Larry Drew III. North Carolina's frontcourt also took a hit early in year when Tyler Zeller went down--he's since returned to the court but isn't yet the player he used to be.

Breakdown: 'Nova appears to be completely outclassed in this matchup. Most people, by now, are in accord that UNC is the best team in the country. They've demolished every opponent in their path, even with the hardest road to the Final Four of any one seed. Unfortunately for them, Villanova doesn't match up at all with the 'Heels. They are short, slight, and thin in the post, while UNC may have the strongest frontcourt in the country. Look for the 'Heels to dominate all game long in the paint with Hansbrough, Thompson, and Ed Davis. The Wildcats match up much better in the backcourt--they have the kind of guy in Scotty Reynolds that has given UNC fits this year. Villanova will have to be on fire to have any chance in the game, but it remains to be seen whether they would be able to keep up with North Carolina even when playing at their highest level.


Keys for Villanova:

1. Find somebody to contain Hansbrough and Thompson inside
2. Play under control
3. Keep pace of game in check

Keys for UNC:

1. Speed 'Nova up
2. Hold Scotty Reynolds
3. Maintain defensive enthusiasm

Final Analysis: I really don't expect the Wildcats to fair any better against UNC than the other teams Carolina's gone up against in the Big Dance. Frankly, I could easily see the 'Heels winning by fifteen or even twenty if they really want to run the 'Cats out of the gym. It's two teams who simply aren't at the same talent or maturity level. Villanova is extremely tough and they out-hustle most of their opponents, but the gap appears to be too large for their plethora of guards to overcome as long as North Carolina stays focused and defensively engaged in the game.

Final Score: UNC-82 Villanova-66

Final Four Breakdown, Pt. 1

A whole month of madness has finally culminated in this upcoming weekend--the last weekend of college basketball, sadly. The Final Four is upon us at last, leaving us with three powerhouse usual suspects and a gritty contender from Philly. In anticipation of the big day coming up, I'm going to take the time to break down the strengths and weaknesses of each team, talk about how they match up with each other, and even give my predictions for the rest of the tournament.

For today, I'll check out the left side of the bracket, the Midwest Champion (Michigan State) vs. the West Champion (UConn).

Midwest Champion: Michigan State Spartans

How they got there: You can't really say enough about Tom Izzo in this tournament. After sometimes cruising, sometimes stumbling through the pathetic atrocity known as the Big Ten this year, the Spartans finished the regular season looking like they were in prime position to capture the final number one from either a sputtering, Blake Griffin-less Oklahoma or a UConn team that seemed to be running out of gas without Jerome Dyson. Then they got smacked in the face by rival Ohio State in the Big Ten Conference Tournament and the shot at that final one seed became an ephemeral dream. Many picked Sparty to falter quickly in a seemingly loaded Midwest bracket. But Michigan State systematically dismantled Robert Morris and out-toughed underrated and talented USC, before coming back from a double-digit deficit to stun Sherron Collins and Kansas in the final few minutes. Then came the much anticipated matchup with Louisville, possibly the most talented team in the country. The game was tied with a little more than ten minutes remaining when MSU decided to turn up the heat defensively and embarrassed the Cardinals 64-52 in a game that wasn't nearly that close.

Strengths: It all starts with Tom Izzo, who has cemented himself as one of the premier coaches in the game after making Rick Pitino look like a high school coach instead of the future hall of famer that he is. Izzo's been here before and knows what it takes to win. On the court, Michigan State's chances to win ultimately hinge upon the play of star sophomore point guard Kalin Lucas. Lucas only averages 14.6 points and 4.6 assists per game, but he is the heart and soul of his team. Goran Suton's ability to be a playmaker from the post area out to the three-point line is nearly as pivotal to the Spartans, and as a senior he doesn't want his career to end. MSU also has a plethora of options to score from deep, rampant depth in the backcourt, and a hardened mentality to the game that can't be overstated.

Weaknesses: Outside of Lucas, the Spartans don't have many consistent playmakers from the perimeter. Travis Walton is a lackluster shooter from range and Korie Lucious is still a greenhorn who turns the ball over too frequently. Chris Allen and Durrell Summers are phenomenal shooters, but they have problems handling the ball under pressure. While the defense has been solid for the majority of the season, the offense has often struggled mightily with its consistency. If Kalin Lucas is shut down or has an off night, Michigan State will have to rely on veterans like Walton, Suton, and Raymar Morgan, who has yet to live up to his potential since his arrival in East Lansing.

West Champion: Connecticut Huskies

How they got there: Losing Jerome Dyson has left far less of a sting upon the Huskies than most anticipated. Not only has senior A.J. Price stepped up like expected, but the emergence of freshman, future star Kemba Walker has eased the transition even more. A few weeks before the end of the regular season, UConn looked like a lock for the overall number one seed. A late loss to Pitt and a wild, six-overtime shootout against Syracuse in the Big East Tournament in which Connecticut came up short after a phenomenal performance by Johnny Flynn had the Huskies wondering if they may be on the outside looking in for a number one seed, but the committee correctly chose their embodiment of work over the Tiger's drubbing of the pitiful Conference USA and handed UConn the final number one seed. They proceeded to vindicate both themselves and the committee by demolishing Tennessee-Chattanooga, Texas A&M, and Purdue by a combined score of 267-173, then outlasting a scrappy, talented Missouri team by nailing 81% (26/32) of their freethrows to the Tigers pedestrian 50% (6/12).

Strengths: As has been chronicled endlessly this year, Connecticut has the one player that nobody else in the country can emulate--Hasheem Thabeet. The 7-3 mammoth center from Tanzania is one of the all-time great defensive players, both in his unlimited shot-blocking ability and the sheer intimidation that results from his mere foreboding presence in the lane. He's no Hakeem Olajuwon on offense, but his dominant size and length allow him to easily dunk and get shots up over even the best defenders in the country. A.J. Price provides not only the leadership, intelligence, and stability that you love from a senior point guard, but also a wealth of talent. He's joined in the backcourt by the electric Walker, a lightning-quick playmaker with the ball in his hands, and the always steady Craig Austrie. UConn has talent and size inside with senior Jeff Adrien and junior Stanley Robinson, a multi-faceted defender who can guard almost every position on the court and jump out of the gym.

Weaknesses: Although they field one of the premier starting lineups in the country, depth has been a frequent problem for the Huskies this year. Already thin before Jerome Dyson's season-ending injury, UConn now barely goes seven deep. If Thabeet gets in foul trouble like he did against Mizzou, the Huskies lose the one (literally) huge advantage they have over other teams. Connecticut is also a suspect shooting team from long range, especially with Austrie's recent shooting slump. A.J. Price is always a reliable option from deep, but without Dyson as his wingman UConn is forced into a more dribble and drive role. This is fine for Walker, but at times other Huskies become complacent and stagnant on offense. Also, although it gets played down by Jim Calhoun and the rest of the UConn program, one can only wonder how much of an impact the recent allogations of recruiting violations will have as the impending storm clouds gather around Storrs...

Breakdown: The first thing that has to go in Michigan State's favor is their near homecourt advantage. East Lansing is only about seventy-five miles from Detroit, and you can imagine the entire state will be cheering for the Spartans. Moving on to the actual matchup, you immediately (on paper at least) give a monstrous edge to UConn. Price and Lucas essentially cancel each other out at point guard, taking away the edge that Michigan State has over most teams in a quality leader. The rest of the backcourt is a wash as well, with Summers, Allen, Walton, and Lucious against Austrie and Walker. But the frontcourt is a gigantic check mark in the Husky's favor. Suton is a solid, if not spectacular, player in the post for the Spartans, but even against Louisville he's never seen anything athleticism-wise like the combination of Thabeet, Robinson, and Adrien. Delvon Roe and Draymond Green are talented big guys for the Green, but they should be neutralized against big timers like the inside giants of Connecticut. Raymar Morgan, the most athletic player by far for MSU, will need to step up after a hugely disappointing season and be aggressive all over the court. He will likely be guarded by Robinson of UConn.

Keys for UConn:

1. Dominate inside
2. Keep Thabeet out of foul trouble
3. Don't settle for jump shots, drive the lane

Keys for Michigan State:

1. Control Thabeet
2. Hard-nosed perimeter defense
3. Keep UConn off-balance offensively
   

Final Analysis: I just think Connecticut's drastic advantage inside, as well as their overall talent surplus, will prove to be Izzo and the Spartan's undoing and send them home a game before they hoped. MSU's advantage of depth should allow them to grind down UConn to an extent, but I don't imagine it will be enough to stop the Husky's relentless arsenal of scorers in a straight-up, forty-minute-long game. Should be a gritty game to the end, and not huge on scoring like some of the recent affairs in the tournament.

Final Score: UConn-75 Michigan State-69