Final Four Breakdown, Pt. 1

A whole month of madness has finally culminated in this upcoming weekend--the last weekend of college basketball, sadly. The Final Four is upon us at last, leaving us with three powerhouse usual suspects and a gritty contender from Philly. In anticipation of the big day coming up, I'm going to take the time to break down the strengths and weaknesses of each team, talk about how they match up with each other, and even give my predictions for the rest of the tournament.

For today, I'll check out the left side of the bracket, the Midwest Champion (Michigan State) vs. the West Champion (UConn).

Midwest Champion: Michigan State Spartans

How they got there: You can't really say enough about Tom Izzo in this tournament. After sometimes cruising, sometimes stumbling through the pathetic atrocity known as the Big Ten this year, the Spartans finished the regular season looking like they were in prime position to capture the final number one from either a sputtering, Blake Griffin-less Oklahoma or a UConn team that seemed to be running out of gas without Jerome Dyson. Then they got smacked in the face by rival Ohio State in the Big Ten Conference Tournament and the shot at that final one seed became an ephemeral dream. Many picked Sparty to falter quickly in a seemingly loaded Midwest bracket. But Michigan State systematically dismantled Robert Morris and out-toughed underrated and talented USC, before coming back from a double-digit deficit to stun Sherron Collins and Kansas in the final few minutes. Then came the much anticipated matchup with Louisville, possibly the most talented team in the country. The game was tied with a little more than ten minutes remaining when MSU decided to turn up the heat defensively and embarrassed the Cardinals 64-52 in a game that wasn't nearly that close.

Strengths: It all starts with Tom Izzo, who has cemented himself as one of the premier coaches in the game after making Rick Pitino look like a high school coach instead of the future hall of famer that he is. Izzo's been here before and knows what it takes to win. On the court, Michigan State's chances to win ultimately hinge upon the play of star sophomore point guard Kalin Lucas. Lucas only averages 14.6 points and 4.6 assists per game, but he is the heart and soul of his team. Goran Suton's ability to be a playmaker from the post area out to the three-point line is nearly as pivotal to the Spartans, and as a senior he doesn't want his career to end. MSU also has a plethora of options to score from deep, rampant depth in the backcourt, and a hardened mentality to the game that can't be overstated.

Weaknesses: Outside of Lucas, the Spartans don't have many consistent playmakers from the perimeter. Travis Walton is a lackluster shooter from range and Korie Lucious is still a greenhorn who turns the ball over too frequently. Chris Allen and Durrell Summers are phenomenal shooters, but they have problems handling the ball under pressure. While the defense has been solid for the majority of the season, the offense has often struggled mightily with its consistency. If Kalin Lucas is shut down or has an off night, Michigan State will have to rely on veterans like Walton, Suton, and Raymar Morgan, who has yet to live up to his potential since his arrival in East Lansing.

West Champion: Connecticut Huskies

How they got there: Losing Jerome Dyson has left far less of a sting upon the Huskies than most anticipated. Not only has senior A.J. Price stepped up like expected, but the emergence of freshman, future star Kemba Walker has eased the transition even more. A few weeks before the end of the regular season, UConn looked like a lock for the overall number one seed. A late loss to Pitt and a wild, six-overtime shootout against Syracuse in the Big East Tournament in which Connecticut came up short after a phenomenal performance by Johnny Flynn had the Huskies wondering if they may be on the outside looking in for a number one seed, but the committee correctly chose their embodiment of work over the Tiger's drubbing of the pitiful Conference USA and handed UConn the final number one seed. They proceeded to vindicate both themselves and the committee by demolishing Tennessee-Chattanooga, Texas A&M, and Purdue by a combined score of 267-173, then outlasting a scrappy, talented Missouri team by nailing 81% (26/32) of their freethrows to the Tigers pedestrian 50% (6/12).

Strengths: As has been chronicled endlessly this year, Connecticut has the one player that nobody else in the country can emulate--Hasheem Thabeet. The 7-3 mammoth center from Tanzania is one of the all-time great defensive players, both in his unlimited shot-blocking ability and the sheer intimidation that results from his mere foreboding presence in the lane. He's no Hakeem Olajuwon on offense, but his dominant size and length allow him to easily dunk and get shots up over even the best defenders in the country. A.J. Price provides not only the leadership, intelligence, and stability that you love from a senior point guard, but also a wealth of talent. He's joined in the backcourt by the electric Walker, a lightning-quick playmaker with the ball in his hands, and the always steady Craig Austrie. UConn has talent and size inside with senior Jeff Adrien and junior Stanley Robinson, a multi-faceted defender who can guard almost every position on the court and jump out of the gym.

Weaknesses: Although they field one of the premier starting lineups in the country, depth has been a frequent problem for the Huskies this year. Already thin before Jerome Dyson's season-ending injury, UConn now barely goes seven deep. If Thabeet gets in foul trouble like he did against Mizzou, the Huskies lose the one (literally) huge advantage they have over other teams. Connecticut is also a suspect shooting team from long range, especially with Austrie's recent shooting slump. A.J. Price is always a reliable option from deep, but without Dyson as his wingman UConn is forced into a more dribble and drive role. This is fine for Walker, but at times other Huskies become complacent and stagnant on offense. Also, although it gets played down by Jim Calhoun and the rest of the UConn program, one can only wonder how much of an impact the recent allogations of recruiting violations will have as the impending storm clouds gather around Storrs...

Breakdown: The first thing that has to go in Michigan State's favor is their near homecourt advantage. East Lansing is only about seventy-five miles from Detroit, and you can imagine the entire state will be cheering for the Spartans. Moving on to the actual matchup, you immediately (on paper at least) give a monstrous edge to UConn. Price and Lucas essentially cancel each other out at point guard, taking away the edge that Michigan State has over most teams in a quality leader. The rest of the backcourt is a wash as well, with Summers, Allen, Walton, and Lucious against Austrie and Walker. But the frontcourt is a gigantic check mark in the Husky's favor. Suton is a solid, if not spectacular, player in the post for the Spartans, but even against Louisville he's never seen anything athleticism-wise like the combination of Thabeet, Robinson, and Adrien. Delvon Roe and Draymond Green are talented big guys for the Green, but they should be neutralized against big timers like the inside giants of Connecticut. Raymar Morgan, the most athletic player by far for MSU, will need to step up after a hugely disappointing season and be aggressive all over the court. He will likely be guarded by Robinson of UConn.

Keys for UConn:

1. Dominate inside
2. Keep Thabeet out of foul trouble
3. Don't settle for jump shots, drive the lane

Keys for Michigan State:

1. Control Thabeet
2. Hard-nosed perimeter defense
3. Keep UConn off-balance offensively
   

Final Analysis: I just think Connecticut's drastic advantage inside, as well as their overall talent surplus, will prove to be Izzo and the Spartan's undoing and send them home a game before they hoped. MSU's advantage of depth should allow them to grind down UConn to an extent, but I don't imagine it will be enough to stop the Husky's relentless arsenal of scorers in a straight-up, forty-minute-long game. Should be a gritty game to the end, and not huge on scoring like some of the recent affairs in the tournament.

Final Score: UConn-75 Michigan State-69